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Thread: ObamaCare repeal analysis: Millions would drop coverage, costs would fall under bill

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    Shrieking Violet Sprockey's Avatar
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    ObamaCare repeal analysis: Millions would drop coverage, costs would fall under bill

    Congressional budget scorekeepers released their highly anticipated analysis of Republicans’ ObamaCare repeal bill late Monday, estimating millions more people would be uninsured under the legislation – though the federal deficit and premiums also would shrink in the long-term.
    The Congressional Budget Office predicted 14 million more people would be uninsured in 2018, with that number growing to 24 million by 2026. The estimate swiftly fueled opponents’ warnings that the measure would toss millions of voters off insurance plans.
    “The CBO's estimate makes clear that TrumpCare will cause serious harm to millions of American families,” Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., said in a statement. “… This should be a looming stop sign for the Republicans repeal effort.”
    GOP supporters of the repeal plan, however, for days have downplayed the significance of the CBO findings, noting that the same office’s coverage projections for the original Affordable Care Act were off by millions.
    Trump administration officials pushed back on the report late Monday, with Health Secretary Tom Price saying the CBO looked only at the bill before Congress, and not the regulatory reforms and flexibility for states also being planned.
    “The coverage numbers are in fact going down,” Price said. “The CBO looked at a portion of a plan but not the entire plan.”
    Office of Management and Budget Director Mick Mulvaney argued the idea that people on ObamaCare through Medicaid would drop out immediately is “just absurd.”
    House Speaker Paul Ryan, R-Wis., told Fox News' "Special Report with Bret Baier" that he was "pretty encouraged" by the report and claimed it "actually exceeded my expectations."
    "Where I’m encouraged is once our reforms kick in, what the CBO is telling us is it’s going to lower premiums," Ryan said. "I’m excited about this analysis and yeah, I think they sort of overestimate the uninsured number just like they overestimated who would be insured by ObamaCare."
    While millions are projected to lose insurance under the plan, the CBO projected this would largely be due to individuals opting to drop coverage in the event the so-called “mandate” is lifted.

    To this point, Ryan said, “Our plan is not about forcing people to buy expensive, one-size-fits-all coverage. It is about giving people more choices and better access to a plan they want and can afford. When people have more choices, costs go down.” **

    http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2017...uninsured.html

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    Shrieking Violet Sprockey's Avatar
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    CBO report: 24 million fewer insured by 2026 under GOP health care bill


    Twenty-four million more Americans would be uninsured by 2026 under the House Republican health care bill than under Obamacare, including 14 million by next year, the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office said Monday.




    The long-anticipated score immediately puts the writers and supporters of the GOP Obamacare repeal bill on the defensive. It is also certain to complicate the party's already troubled efforts to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act.
    The CBO, along with the Joint Committee on Taxation, found that 5 million fewer people would be covered under Medicaid by 2018, and 14 million fewer people would enroll in the program by 2026. Meanwhile, 6 million fewer Americans would be covered in the individual market by 2018, but by 2026, only 2 million fewer people are expected to be covered. That's in part because fewer employers would offer insurance to their workers, driving more people to the individual market.



    In total, an estimated 52 million people would be uninsured by 2026 under the GOP plan, compared to 28 million who would lack insurance under the current law.
    The Republican bill, titled the American Health Care Act, would reduce the federal deficit by $337 billion over 10 years, the CBO said.
    http://www.cnn.com/2017/03/13/politi...t-health-care/

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    Premier Sponsor Jasmine's Avatar
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    The Republican Right proves for the umpteenth time that they don't give a rat's ass about the common man or his trials and tribulations. Ironically, it will hit the rank and file heartlanders the hardest, and they are the backbone of their party. I guess the billionaire and his billionaire cronies aren't their pals after all since the RICH are getting huge tax breaks and the poor and middle class are getting screwed.
    "Life is about dreams. Teaching is about making them come true."

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    Premier Sponsor beccaphel's Avatar
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    The problem is that the older people who aren't making as much would likely have their rates increase (and in some cases, but huge amounts). They are less likely to be able to pay for care or insurance, and more likely to need it. That worries me.

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    Shrieking Violet Sprockey's Avatar
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    What does it fix?
    That's what I need to know.

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    Domino-ist RichB's Avatar
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    The CBO scoring always needs to be taken with a YUGE grain of salt. I think that they projected almost double the number of people to be covered by Obamacare than actually were.
    'The trouble with our liberal friends is not that they're ignorant; it's just that they know so much that isn't so.' - Ronald Reagan

    'You can't get rich in politics unless you're a crook.' - Harry S. Truman

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    Premier Sponsor beccaphel's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sprockey View Post
    What does it fix?
    That's what I need to know.
    The good? Many people making over $200K will get a huge cut in what they need to pay. The deficit will be reduced.

    The bad? Many people making less than 30K will get a huge increase in what they need to pay. 24M will be without coverage.

    I think, if we didn't lose the Medicaid expansion, I would like it a lot more. We'd not see the deficit reduction, but we would see more people (especially those who are older and less affluent) keep their coverage.

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    Full Sponsor TapToTalk's Avatar
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    I'm curious how they figure out who would drop insurance.

    They aren't taking into account the affects of the death spiral in the current system.

    Regardless, this plan doesn't attack the main problems of the current system; so, like many heated debates in DC it is drama about minor variations.

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    Quote Originally Posted by RichB View Post
    The CBO scoring always needs to be taken with a YUGE grain of salt. I think that they projected almost double the number of people to be covered by Obamacare than actually were.
    That projection assumed Medicaid expansion in all states. Before the court made it optional.

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    Domino-ist RichB's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by faerymajick View Post
    That projection assumed Medicaid expansion in all states. Before the court made it optional.
    It seems like almost all of the net additional people that got coverage were due to the Medicaid expansion. The exchanges, the mandate, etc. has been an unmitigated disaster.
    'The trouble with our liberal friends is not that they're ignorant; it's just that they know so much that isn't so.' - Ronald Reagan

    'You can't get rich in politics unless you're a crook.' - Harry S. Truman

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